MLB playoff projections: Who holds edge in each Wild Card matchup?

MLB playoff projections: Who holds edge in each Wild Card matchup?
MLB: San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgers
Gary A. Vasquez / USA TODAY Sports

After a 60-game season (well, for everyone except the Cardinals and Tigers), the 2020 Major League Baseball playoff field is set. This season will see the most playoff teams ever, as eight from each league have made it. 

In looking ahead at the month to come, SportsLine has run playoff simulations and we’ll provide the data below. First, though, here is the bracket: 

mlb-playoff-bracket-final.jpg


CBS Sports

So what does Sportsline’s projection model say for these eight matchups? The better seed is favored in seven of them with the fifth-seeded Yankees proving to be the lone exception. The Yankees, Braves and Dodgers are among the biggest first-round favorites in Sportsline’s view.

Here’s how Sportsline breaks down the Wild Card round.

Wild Card Series matchup simulations

  • (1) Rays over (8) Blue Jays, 56.7% to 43.3%
  • (2) Athletics over (7) White Sox, 58% to 42% 
  • (3) Twins over (6) Astros, 63.5% to 36.5%
  • (5) Yankees over (4) Cleveland, 71.5% to 28.5%
  • (1) Dodgers over (8) Brewers, 68.8% to 31.2%
  • (2) Braves over (7) Reds, 71.7% to 28.3%
  • (3) Cubs over (6) Marlins, 55.1% to 45.0%
  • (4) Padres over (5) Cardinals, 57.6% to 42.4%

The numbers are in for the rest of October, too. Here are the percentage projections Sportsline gives every playoff team of getting to each round past the Wild Card Series and winning the World Series.

American League odds

Rays

32.6%

16.76%

7.06%

A’s

30%

14.47%

6.08%

Twins

28.2%

13.36%

5.12%

Cleveland

12.9%

4.9%

1.39%

Yankees

48.4%

32.94%

17.99%

Astros

12.4%

3.76%

1.06%

White Sox

15.7%

5.31%

1.86%

Blue Jays

19.5%

8.5%

3.01%

National League odds

Dodgers

57.9%

45.46%

32.91%

Braves

47.2%

20.76%

10.71%

Cubs

21.3%

5.94%

1.92%

Padres

27.3%

11.09%

5.23%

Cardinals

14.3%

4.07%

1.21%

Marlins 

12%

3.3%

0.95%

Reds

7.1%

2.74%

0.85%

Brewers

13%

6.64%

2.65%

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