B/R’s Week 3 2020 Fantasy Football Trade Analyzer

B/R’s Week 3 2020 Fantasy Football Trade Analyzer

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    Lynne Sladky/Associated Press

    As we enter Week 3 of the 2020 NFL season, many a fantasy football manager is scrambling for reinforcements. Injuries to players such as Saquon Barkley, Christian McCaffrey, Raheem Mostert and Courtland Sutton have impacted the fantasy landscape for both the short and long terms.

    Naturally, the trade market is one way to navigate this slew of injuries—along with the upcoming series of bye weeks. The trick is finding a deal that is favorable to you.

    Each week, Bleacher Report will analyze some of our readers’ toughest trade proposals and provide feedback. Some of the analysis will be roster-specific, but we’ll try to provide information that is useful to all fantasy fans.

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    From the Bleacher Report App

    Let’s kick things off with a trade that involves two of the hottest players in fantasy right now: Kansas City Chiefs running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen.

    Edwards-Helaire saw his rushing production fall off by 100 yards in Week 2, but he made up for that in point-per-reception (PPR) formats by catching six passes for 32 yards. The biggest difference is that he didn’t find the end zone.

    Edwards-Helaire still has the potential to be a top-five back over the course of the season, especially with McCaffrey sidelined and Barkley done for the year. That is the key to this potential trade. I love Allen’s fantasy upside (more on him shortly), but CEH is a far better RB option than Joe Mixon, while Cooper Kupp and John Brown are close to a wash.

    While doubling up with Allen and Brown is a sound strategy, this move only makes sense if you’re already deep at running back and are lacking at the quarterback position. If that’s the case, though, this isn’t a bad trade.

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    From the Bleacher Report App

    Back to Allen. The Bills signal-caller is the breakout quarterback of 2020. Through two games, Allen has completed 70.4 percent of his passes for 727 yards, six touchdowns and no interceptions. He’s also rushed for 76 yards and another score. To be fair, he’s only played the New York Jets and the Miami Dolphins. However, while his numbers will fall back to earth some, he looks like an easy top-five fantasy QB.

    Allen is in a different stratosphere than Tom Brady and Carson Wentz right now, so this trade hinges on the manager’s depth at running back and wide receiver. Jonathan Taylor has top-10 potential now that he’s the Indianapolis Colts’ starter, and Kenny Golladay will be a weekly must-start once he’s healthy (more on him in a bit).

    If you’re hurting at receiver and Antonio Gibson is one of your better backs, then this is a deal I’d make. Gibson is stuck in a bad Washington Football Team offense and is a serviceable flex option at best. He also faces the stout run defenses of the Cleveland Browns and the Baltimore Ravens in the coming weeks.

    I would only trade Allen if both Taylor and Golladay are going to be instant starters on your roster—and even then, I’d search for an alternative to Brady or Wentz at QB.

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    From the Bleacher Report App

    So you traded Will Fuller V for Kenny Golladay. As long as Golladay gets and stays at 100 percent, that’s a steal, my friend.

    Golladay racked up 1,190 yards and a league-high 11 touchdowns last season while only playing half the year with starting quarterback Matthew Stafford. He is the Detroit Lions’ No. 1 wideout and can be a reliable WR1 when healthy.

    According to Dave Birkett of the Detroit Free Press, Golladay should be healthy enough to make his 2020 debut in Week 3. Anyone who can buy low on him now should do it.

    As for Fuller, I’m not sure it’s fair to say he’s missing. He’s second among Houston Texans players in targets (10) behind Brandin Cooks (13). The problem is the Houston offense isn’t in sync, and Fuller hasn’t been able to make the most of his opportunities—he has eight catches for 112 yards.

    Fuller should come around as Deshaun Watson gets more comfortable with his new-look receiving corps. However, he’s a regular injury risk and doesn’t possess the No. 1 potential of a guy like Golladay.

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    From the Bleacher Report App

    The big reason why Deshaun Watson and the Texans have struggled offensively is the absence of DeAndre Hopkins. He’s the Arizona Cardinals’ No. 1 target now, which is a tremendous boon for both Kyler Murray and fantasy managers.

    “I really don’t look at stats too much, but just the way my body feels and the game plan going into it, this is the best I’ve felt on a Week 3,” Hopkins said, per Bob McManaman of the Arizona Republic.

    Well, fantasy fanatics do look at the stats, and they say Murray and Hopkins are an otherworldly combination. Through two games, they’ve connected for 22 receptions, 219 yards and a touchdown. Hopkins is the wide receiver to roster in fantasy.

    I absolutely love DK Metcalf as a future WR1 (and guess what—we’ll have more on him), but he is not at the same level as Hopkins. The question here is whether the duo of Taylor and Metcalf is more valuable than Hopkins—though I like Darius Slayton, he’s more of a throw-in in this trade.

    This comes down to running back depth. If Taylor is only going to replace another top-20 RB in your lineup, I’m not letting go of Hopkins.

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    From the Bleacher Report App

    Let’s expand on Metcalf. He’s establishing himself as Russell Wilson’s No. 1 target—or at least 1B alongside Tyler Lockett. This is important because the Seahawks are finally embracing Wilson’s throwing ability as the focal point of the offense.

    Wilson has thrown for 610 yards with nine touchdowns and one interception. Metcalf has come down with eight catches for 187 yards and two touchdowns. He’s on pace for 64 catches, 1,496 yards and 16 touchdowns. While it’s unlikely he reaches such gaudy numbers, he should still finish as a top-15 fantasy receiver.

    I’d value Metcalf far higher than Mike Evans, who is somewhat lost in a Tom Brady-led Tampa Bay Buccaneers offense. Brady isn’t going to force-feed Evans the ball as Jameis Winston did, so while Evans is still a quality starter, he’s not the elite fantasy receiver he was in 2019.

    As for the running back portion of this trade, it’s a wash. Mark Ingram II is likely to continue losing touches to rookie J.K. Dobbins as the season progresses. Meanwhile, Melvin Gordon III is going to be a good-not-great RB2 option with fellow Denver Broncos back Phillip Lindsay on injured reserve.

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    From the Bleacher Report App

    I’m bringing up this particular trade proposal because it gives us a chance to discuss Las Vegas Raiders running back Josh Jacobs. As previously stated, Taylor has top-10 RB potential, while Evans is likely to be a low-end WR1. The two are a relative wash, positions notwithstanding.

    Jacobs is the key to this deal, and he could finish the season as the top running back in fantasy. The reason? Las Vegas is getting him more involved in the passing game. He has caught seven passes on nine targets for 63 yards, putting him on pace for 56 receptions and 504 receiving yards.

    Jacobs is also on pace for 1,448 rushing yards, so there’s a real chance he could top 2,000 scrimmage yards by season’s end. This would put him in the territory of Christian McCaffrey in 2019 and Saquon Barkley in 2018.

    While Dalvin Cook is a quality RB1 when healthy, he doesn’t hold the same value as Jacobs—especially with the struggles of the Minnesota Vikings offense. He’s been relatively touchdown-dependent, and he’s a constant injury risk.

    There’s no way I would give up Jacobs here.

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    From the Bleacher Report App

    Joe Burrow, Joe Burrow, Joe Burrow. Aside from the Atlanta Falcons’ ignorance of onside-kick rules, the Cincinnati Bengals’ rookie quarterback was the topic of conversation in Week 2.

    Why? Because Burrow threw for 316 yards and three touchdowns in a loss against a banged-up and underwhelming Cleveland Browns secondary and took 61 pass attempts to do it. Yes, there’s a bit of sarcasm here.

    Burrow is not an immediate must-start in fantasy, but he does have the poise, talent and football IQ to be a fantasy star in the near future—not to mention Cincinnati’s long-sought answer at quarterback.

    For now, the big takeaway in Cincinnati is that the Bengals are going to put the offense on Burrow’s throwing shoulder, and that’s great news for new No. 1 target Tyler Boyd. He’s the top guy because Burrow cannot get on the same page with veteran A.J. Green.

    Whether it’s a lack of chemistry or the fact that Green is past his prime, the seven-time Pro Bowler has been wildly ineffective. He’s been targeted 22 times and has just eight catches for 80 yards. Boyd has 11 catches for 105 yards and a touchdown and should be a viable flex option moving forward.

    Chris Carson and David Johnson are relatively even in value, so if you need that extra flex option, this is a solid trade. Managers with Green on their roster might want to bench him until things click with Burrow.

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    From the Bleacher Report App

    This potential trade is worth examining because the potential return of Christian McCaffrey is at the center of it. Per ESPN’s Adam Schefter, McCaffrey is expected to miss “multiple weeks.” George Kittle, meanwhile, will not play in Week 3 with a knee injury.

    Kittle is a clear upgrade over the Eagles’ Dallas Goedert at tight end, though Goedert is a must-start at this point. The issue is that Green Bay Packers running back Aaron Jones is also a must-start. He already has 234 rushing yards, eight receptions, 78 receiving yards and four total touchdowns. Like Josh Jacobs, Jones could end up as the top overall RB in fantasy.

    While adding a proven 2,000-yard player like McCaffrey could be tempting, there’s no way I’d move Jones to get him. Managers should be wary of buying too high on McCaffrey because there’s no clear picture of when he’ll return.

    If McCaffrey misses, say, a month and you give up your RB1 to land him, you could be looking at four straight losses before he can even enter your lineup. Yes, McCaffrey is a top-five running back when healthy, but by the time he’s available, you could be one fluke loss away from missing the playoffs.

    I’m not sure I’d trade Jones for a healthy McCaffrey, and Kittle is not enough of an upgrade over Goedert to justify making this deal.

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    From the Bleacher Report App

    Before we cover this week’s quick hits, let’s dive a little bit more into Goedert. While Hayden Hurst is a serviceable starter, Goedert is the tight end I’d favor between these two. He’s also the player I’d lean toward among Philadelphia Eagles tight ends.

    For years, Zach Ertz has been Philadelphia’s go-to pass-catcher and a must-start in fantasy. While he’s not a player I’m putting on the bench, it’s worth noting Goedert could be emerging from Ertz’s shadow to become the new go-to guy.

    Goedert has been targeted 17 times to Ertz’s 14 and has outproduced him significantly. While Ertz has eight catches, 60 yards and a touchdown, Goedert has 12 catches for 131 yards and a score. While we may see a more even split between the two moving forward, the days of Ertz’s being the preferred tight end in Philadelphia may be over.

    This could have something to do with the fact that Ertz is looking for a contract extension, while the Eagles are standing firm.

    “I’ve said all along I want to be here for the long run. I don’t know for sure if that feeling is mutual,” Ertz told reporters.

    The Eagles could be preparing for a future without Ertz, which makes for a bright future for Goedert managers.

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    John Locher/Associated Press

    Let’s wrap things up with a few quick-hitters from Week 3.

    SrVn96 asks: Should I trade CeeDee [Lamb] for [Darren] Waller?

    This depends on your depth at receiver and tight end. If you already have a top-tier tight end like Travis Kelce, George Kittle or Mark Andrews, I would not make the deal. If you don’t, however, I would in an instant.

    Waller, who has 18 catches for 150 yards and a touchdown, can be a top-three tight end in fantasy this season. While I like Lamb’s upside, he’s on a roster with Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup and isn’t the same must-start player that Waller is.

    macmax007 asks: Give up Russell Wilson for Kenyan Drake?

    This depends on your positional depth, but I would not. Drake is potentially a top-10 fantasy RB, but he’s more of a Tier 2 RB. Wilson, on the other hand, could be the top quarterback in fantasy this season.

    Wilson is on pace for 4,880 passing yards, 72 touchdowns, eight interceptions and 544 rushing yards. The 72 touchdown passes is an unrealistic number. The rest of that potential stat line is not.

    OnlyDaBidness says: I got offered [Joe] Mixon and [Myles] Gaskin for [James] Robinson.

    I would keep Robinson in this scenario. While Mixon could have a late-season surge like he did last year, he’s not shaping up to be a top-15 fantasy back. Gaskin is the lead back for the Miami Dolphins but is in a committee and also unlikely to be top-15 or even top-20.

    Robinson, meanwhile, is on a tear and is now looking like a viable Offensive Rookie of the Year candidate. He’s rushed for 210 yards and three touchdowns in three games and is averaging 4.9 yards per carry. He’s also added 129 yards on 10 receptions. This puts the Jacksonville Jaguars rookie on pace for 1,808 scrimmage yards and 16 touchdowns.

    Robinson could be a surprise top-10 RB by season’s end.

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